-G5 



THL SITUATION 

IN 

50UTHLA5TLRN 

LUROPL m m 



q AN ADDRESS DELIVERED 
by HENRY G. CROCKER, at 
the SEVENTH ANNUAL MEET- 
ING of the SOCIETY of AMERI- 
CAN WARS, COMMANDERY of 
the DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, 
held at WASHINGTON, APRIL 
30,1909. 




iss ^4-(^5" 
C7 



[)()()K 



1'Ki:si;nti:i) hy 



THL SITUATION 

IN 

50UTHLA5TLRN 

LUROPL m m 



q JN ADDRESS DELIVERED 
by HENRY G. CROCKER, at 
the SEVENTH ANNUAL MEET- 
ING of the SOCIETY of AMERI- 
CAN WARS, COMMANDER Y of 
the DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, 
held at WASHINGTON, APRIL 
30,1909. 



WASHINGTON 

BYRON S. ADAMS 

1909 






Gift 
The Soeiaty 

28Mv'09 



The Situation in South- 
eastern Europe. 



Commander and Companions: 

It is with some diffidence that I rise, at the re- 
quest of our Commander, to occupy a part of your 
time this evening on a subject, the present situation 
in Southeastern Europe, that may appear not to 
touch the matters in which this Society is particu- 
larly interested. But if it were necessary to jus- 
tify inviting your attention to a subject of such pres- 
ent concern to the whole world, it is enough to say 
that any state of affairs that can possibly involve 
our country in war affects this Society closely. For 
the Society of American Wars holds this one grand 
distinction among its fellows : that while others look 
backward, each to a single war from which it draws 
its inspiration and to which it owes its members, our 
Societ}^ bases eligibility upon service in any war 
in which the United States has been or sliall he en- 



gaged. And so we alone, making no discrimina- 
tion between one war and another, look to the fu- 
ture as well as to the past. Why we make no dis- 
crimination between one war and another, was 
patly expressed b}^ President David Starr Jordan 
in his address some years ago at the first annual 
banquet of the California Commandery of this So- 
ciety, when he said "The men who defended our 
flag in one war or another were actuated by like 
feelings." 

What wars it will fall to the part of our country 
to wage is beyond our ken. But wars will come 
unless human nature the world over changes; and 
while the march of international arbitration ad- 
vances in measure with the progress of mutual in- 
terdependence of nations, there will arise cases of 
irreconcilably conflicting interests that must be left 
to the arbitrament of force. Universal peace is not 
yet emerged from the domain of poet's imagination 
and philosopher's speculation into the realm of 
reasoned and livable fact. 

The arbitration propaganda of recent years was 
induced by the conviction that war is generally a 
losing game even for the victor. This conviction 



has been reached only at a period in the world's his- 
tory when the chances of profit through victory 
have dwindled to a very small percentage. In 
truth, the wars of the less recent past have often 
been calamitous for all concerned, but there was 
generally a chance, exaggerated by fervor of pa- 
triotism into expectation, of profit through stripping 
an overthrown enemy of his valuables. 

The last century with its brilliant achievements 
in science, bringing into close touch peoples remote 
in distance, has seen such an interweaving of inter- 
ests — interests that would suffer in time of war, no 
matter who wins the battle — that we may expect no 
war will be permitted unless great and vital na- 
tional issues are involved. Issues and interests 
there are, however, or may be, which outweigh 
all ordinary considerations, and for which the 
nation will rise to struggle. Suppose, diplo- 
macy failing, a European power should undertake 
to extend its sovereignty along the Caribbean coast 
of South America, would we arbitrate or fight? 
What would there be to arbitrate? Suppose an 
Asiatic power should demand the repeal of some 



of our exclusion or other legislation that we con- 
sider necessar}^ to maintain the standard of living 
and hence the civilization of the American laborer? 
Would we arbitrate? Suppose, as a consequence of 
a European war, Britain should be maimed and 
that her adversary should endeavor to despoil her 
of maritime Canada, what would we do? And 
can we not imagine circumstances in which we 
would come to England's aid even if her new-world 
possessions were not attacked? 

These are not matters susceptible of arbitration. 
And so long as increase of population brings expan- 
sion in its train, so long will there be danger of 
armed conflict. And so it is that we, who look to 
the future as well as to the past, feel concerned with 
every shifting change in the relations of nations, for 
we know not when we may be actively involved. 

It is Southeastern Europe that has been threaten- 
ing the world's peace during the past year. The 
lingering empire of the Sick Man of Europe has 
again been the object of thmsts that have brought 
the physician powers to interpose their soothing ser- 
vices to postpone at least impending dissolution. 



The famous Near Eastern Question is on the minds 
of European statesmen and no one knows how his- 
tory will answer it. The Balkan Question is a 
problem quite as knotty, and the Macedonian Ques- 
tion, though at present receiving less attention, has 
in recent years been the chief cause of worry. To 
define these three questions, so intunately related 
to one another that a single war like the Russo- 
Turkish war of 1877-8 might solve all three at 
once, it may be said: Eirst, that the Near Eastern 
question has to do with the fate of Turkey in Eu- 
rope. Shall the Turk continue to rule in Europe 
in greater or less measure ? — and which shall be the 
power or powers to succeed to the sovereignty of 
territory that may be relinquished there by him? 
The Balkan question asks, what is to be the future 
of the young nations that have been carved from 
the quondam domain of Turkey? Is the sover- 
eignty of any of them merely in transit to coalesce 
with that of some powerful neighbor? or will they 
rather crowd out the retreating Turk? And when 
we speak of the Macedonian question, we seek 
eradication of the misgovernment by the Turk of 



the Christian population in the three vilayets, 
Salonica, Kossovo, and Monastir, where the pow- 
ers have time and again sought to relieve the distress 
of their coreligionists. These, however, it must be 
said, are victims not only of the Moslems but of 
themselves; for in all this country the Christians, 
who make a veiy heterogeneous majority of the 
whole population of seventy-five persons to the 
square mile, are of various races and various creeds, 
each bent upon proseMizing or crippling the others 
in the hope of predominating and ultimately secur- 
ing autonomy for a government of its own. 

And upon this strife the Turk looks with com- 
placency, while wringing out his iniquitous taxes. 
A modification of this last phrase is, however, due 
the government of the Young Turks, instituted last 
July. The revolution of that month was a pa- 
triotic movement undertaken to arrest the decay of 
the Ottoman power in Europe, and, immediately 
after the Sultan was forced to restore the Constitu- 
tion of 1876, the new government took measures 
to improve the intolerable conditions in Macedonia, 
well perceiving that upon doing so depends the re- 
tention of sovereignty there. It is likely, too, that 



the evident policy of Austria under the guidance 
of Baron d'Aehrenthal to extend her sphere of in- 
fluence by means of railways towards the Aegean 
Sea hastened heroic action by the Young Turks. 
Barely had the new regime at Constantinople ad- 
dressed itself to the gigantic task of regenerating 
the Empire when neighboring nations which had 
been waiting for ripe fruit to fall shook the tree 
and gathered the ripest. On October 5 last, Fer- 
dinand, Prince of Bulgaria, proclaimed the inde- 
pendence of Bulgaria and Eastern Roumelia, and 
two days later Austria-Hungary extended her sov- 
ereignty over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Each of 
these acts was a casus belli. 

By the treaty signed at Berlin, July 13, 1878, 
Bulgaria had been constituted an autonomous and 
tributary principality under the sovereignty of Tur- 
key. The treaty provided that the prince of Bul- 
garia should be freely elected by the population and 
confirmed by Turkey, with the consent of the pow- 
ers; that Bulgaria should pay annual tribute to 
Turkey and should bear a portion of the Turkish 
public debt. The same treaty provided that East- 



10 

em Koumelia should remain subject to the direct po- 
litical and military authority of Turkey while re- 
taining administrative autonomy. The position of 
Eastern Roumelia was altered by an agreement 
signed at Constantinople, April 5, 1886, by Great 
Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Austria-Hun- 
gSLYV, Italy and Turkey, whereby it was provided 
that the office of governor-general of the province 
created by Article XVII of the Berlin treaty should 
be vested in the Prince of Bulgaria. As Bulgaria 
has never paid the tribute due to Turkey under Ar- 
ticle IX of the Berlin treaty, nor borne any share 
of the Ottoman debt, and as Eastern Boumelia has 
not done much better, Bulgaria's independence has 
cost Turkey only prestige. At any rate the Young 
Turk government felt unable to do more than pro- 
test to the Powers, and has recently accepted, 
through Russia as intermediaiy, a sum of money 
from Bulgaria for her railways interests. Still less 
could Turkey do aught in the Bosnian affair, and 
liere, too, she accepts money for her real property 
estates in the annexed provinces. These provinces 
had been confided bv the Berlin treatv to the ad- 



11 

ministration of Austria-Hungary, and Turkish rule 
was but nominal. 

Taking advantage of the action of Bulgaria and 
Austria-Hungary, and within a week thereafter, on 
October 12, the chamber of Crete, convoked in 
extraordinary^ session, was opened by the president 
of the government in the name of the King of 
Greece, and union with Greece was foimally voted. 
The next day the chamber elected a committee en- 
trusted with the task of governing the island in the 
name of the King of Greece and according to Greek 
laws, to be put in force by decrees, the power of the 
committee to end when Greece assumes administra- 
tion. The government of Greece, however, 
promptty disavowed any responsibility for these 
events, and has performed no act looking towards 
assumption of the administration of Crete. Al- 
though Crete is subject to the suzerainty of Turkey, 
she pays no tribute and is an autonomous state. 
The High Commissioner of the protecting powers is 
a Greek, and Greek officers have the direction of 
the gendarmerie and militia. What change in the 
status of Crete will be pemiitted by the Powers re- 



12 

mains for settlement when the present turbulence 
has subsided. 

By far the most serious menace, however, to in- 
ternational peace has lain in the attitude of Servia 
towards Austria-Hungary's annexation of Bosnia 
and Herzegovina. On the very day of Emperor 
Francis Joseph's proclamation of annexation, Ser- 
via issued a counter proclamation protesting to the 
powers, and a royal ukase convoked their national 
assembly, the skupshtina, in extraordinary session. 
The great ferment in Servia is explained by the fact 
that she is the real loser while Turke}^ is only the 
technical loser. Servia has no seaboard; with an 
area less than half that of Virginia and a popula- 
tion fifty per cent greater and increasing, crowded 
on the north, east and south between Hungary, Bul- 
garia and Turkey, she sees the neighboring prov- 
inces on the west with a population of her own race 
and largely of her own faith finally disappear within 
the maw of the dual monarchy. 

The time had come, Servia thought, to strike. 
Delay meant the assimilation of the Bosnian Serbs 
by Austria-Hungary. The commercial despotism 



13 

that the latter country has exercised over Servia be- 
fore and after she checkmated Servia' s effort to form 
a customs union with Bulgaria in 1906 had kept the 
Serbs on the qui vive for opportunity. National 
aspirations glowed brightly. All Serbs should be 
Servians. Russia, France and Great Britain were 
known to be displeased with the manner of the an- 
nexation. Perhaps assistance would come from 
without. War supplies were hurried, troops aug- 
mented. But Austria saw, and mobilized. She 
demanded of Servia complete acquiescence in the 
annexation and disbandment of the new levies. 
Notes passed between the chancelleries, Eussia be- 
ing Servia' s mentor. Servia did not yield enough. 
Austria insisted. And here Geimany, on behalf 
of her ally, obtained from Russia immediate accept- 
ance of the new status of Bosnia and Herzegovina. 
This, then, was the sequel of the Kaiser's famous 
telegram of April, 1906, to the Austrian minister 
for foreign affairs, in which he expressed thanks for 
Austria's support at the Algesiras conference on 
Moroccan affairs, describing it as "a fine deed of a 
true-hearted ally," and adding: "You have proved 



14 

yourself to be a brilliant second on the duelling 
ground, and you may be certain of similar service 
in similar case from me, also." 

With Russian support withdrawn, Servia, acting 
on the representations of all the great powers, 
yielded without reserve on the last day of March. 
She elected not to pass through the same jaws. Ger- 
many has been criticised for her action, but it may 
have saved Servia. A little later, Servia might 
not have been able by abject submission to withdraw 
unscathed. As it is, Servia has lost her commer- 
cial treaty with the customer of 90 per cent of her 
exports. When a new one is concluded, it is likely 
to be a less favorable one. The Crown Prince, an 
enemy to Austria, has renounced his right of suc- 
cession and it is rumored that the King will abdi- 
cate. Will Servia, so unfavorably situated, ever be 
able to shake free from the forces that appear to be 
preparing her to follow Bosnia? or can she emulate 
Bulgaria, once so subsei^ient to Russia? 

A few days after the subsidence of Servia the dip- 
lomatic notes exchanged between Italy and Monte- 
negro and Montenegro and Austria-Hungary were 



15 

published. The Montenegrins belong almost en- 
tirely to the Serb branch of the Slav race and 
though their number is fewer than the population 
of this city they are fearless and plucky in the face 
of overwhelming odds. Last October they were 
quarreling with Servia, but at the Austrian coup 
the hatchet was buried, and Montenegro on October 
7, the date of Servia's protest to the powers, is- 
sued a proclamation declaring that she would no 
longer be bound by Article XXIX of the Berlin 
treaty, and on December 14 she began to tax im- 
ports from Austria at the maximum tariff. Unlike 
Servia, Montenegro has gained something. Ar- 
ticle XXIX of the Berlin treaty contains man}^ 
provisions restrictive of Montenegro's sovereignty, 
such as forbidding it ships of war and a flag of war 
and closing all Montenegrin waters to all ships of 
war. By the recent understanding, all these re- 
strictions are abolished except one, namely, that 
Antivari shall retain the character of a commercial 
port; that no constructions shall be erected there 
which could change it into a war port. 

During the six months it has taken to adjust and 



16 

compose the relations of the nations ah'eady men- 
tioned, Turkey has been experiencing the novel ex- 
citement of parliamentary rule, which has just cul- 
minated in the Army's taking matters from the 
politicians into its own hands. The Army is imbued 
with the principles of the committee of union and 
progress. This committee was formed in Paris in 
1895 by Turkish political refugees and fused with 
another group of young Turks at Salonica. Branch 
groups were established at Constantinople, Smyrna, 
Uskub, Monastir, and other places. It is interest- 
ing to note that no group had a chief, as a measure 
of precaution to avoid exposing members to pun- 
ishment; nevertheless this did not preclude a re- 
markable unity of action. The committee first 
showed its work in public in 1896 at the time of the 
Armenian massacres, when it placarded Constanti- 
nople, charging the Sultan with being responsible 
for the venality of public ofiicers and all the troubles 
of the times, and recommended as a remedy a con- 
stitution based on principles of union and equality 
for all subjects of the Sultan. In spite of the fact 
that the more prominent persons of the Young Turk 



17 

party were imprisoned or exiled, the propaganda 
was systematically organized and won over easily 
the army officers of inferior rank, who received 
ridiculously small salaries, very irregularly paid, 
and who saw the lavish emoluments of the higher 
places obtained through favoritism alone. The 
revolution of last July was a Moslem revolution 
against the despotic rule of favorites, with its in- 
tolerable system of espionage, its forced gifts and 
its place buying. 

The restoration of the Constitution was followed 
by numerous reforms. Xew men were called to al- 
most all the important posts. There has been free- 
dom of press, travel, expression and worship. Mili- 
tary reorganization was undertaken, and the dis- 
cipline and efficiency of the Turkish army has al- 
ready been vastly improved. In Macedonia the 
struggle of the bands has given place to reconcilia- 
tion at least apparent. A parliament was opened 
December 17. The subsequent vicissitudes of 
parties it is unnecessary to follow. Suffice it to say 
that the army has now demonstrated its will that 
the principles of the committee of union and prog- 
ress shall prevail. 



18 

And what of the future? Can the Turks, who 
have ever shown incapacity to govern a Christian 
population, maintain peace in Macedonia? Can 
they with the seram of occidentalism resuscitate the 
body politic? If so, the Macedonian question is 
solved and the Near Eastern question indefinitely 
postponed until ambitious neighbors can force an 
issue. Of these neighbors, Austria-Hungary and 
Bulgaria are the most dangerous. 

Austria, it has frequently been predicted, will, 
at the death of Emperor Francis Joseph, break up 
into small states. But the recent events show a 
virilit}^ incompatible with that supposition. Inter- 
nally the country is prosperous and foreign policy 
under the energetic management of Baron d'Aeh- 
renthal has tended strongly to commercial and rail- 
road expansion towards the Balkans. The absorp- 
tion of the annexed provinces has been effected 
naturally as the result of thirty years of excellent 
administration. During that period Bosnia and 
Herzegovina have enjoyed prosperity and order 
greatly in contrast with affairs in Macedonia and 
Servia. Thus pushing her commercial influence 



19 

towards the Aegean Sea and in the role of natural 
protector of Eoman Catholics, it is not unlikely that 
any general fracas would establish her at Salonica. 
But Bulgaria, too, is ambitious to reach the 
Aegean. By the treaty of San Stefano of March, 
1878, which was superseded by the Berlin treaty, 
Bulgaria was to extend from the Danube to the 
Aegean and from the Black Sea to the Black Drin. 
This Big Bulgaria remains the aspiration of all Bul- 
gars and the bogey of all non-Bulgar races in the 
Balkans. Bulgars predominate in much of Mace- 
donia and the pull on the little nation is continuous. 
Moreover, the Bulgarians are brave, persevering, 
thrifty and steady. They may some day fasten a 
quarrel on Turkey and solve the Eastern Question 
by occupation of Constantinople. Contingencies 
are so numerous as to permit of little but conjecture. 
The Young Turks may fail of their expectations in 
Europe, or they may be weakened by reactionaiy 
mutiny in Asia. England intrenched in Egypt 
could bear even with Russia at Constantinople ; but 
Russia's influence is past in that direction, as Bul- 
garia has long ago outgrown her tutelage. It is 



20 

possible that the Turk may retain Constantinople 
while surrendering the rest of his European posses- 
sions. In case of a pacific partition, it would seem 
that Bulgaria and Austria would get the major 
part, with concessions to Greece and perhaps to the 
Albanians and Montenegrins; if the god of war 
should decide, which is improbable unless the goad 
of insult is used, for to the western powers the game 
would not be worth the candle, I must leave it to 
you gentlemen whose special study is war to make 
the guess. 



